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:: Volume 2, Number 1 (Winter 2015) ::
3 2015, 2(1): 39-48 Back to browse issues page
Forecasting climate changes of Ziarat watershed in Gorgan city
Maedeh Razavi Zade , Karim Solaimani, Esmaeil Sailakhori
Abstract:   (801 Views)

Climate is a complex system which is changing mainly due to the increase of greenhouse gases. Because of the importance of climate change and the effects it can have on water resources, in recent years, this topic has been taken into consideration for different basins on Earth. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change and forecasting meteorological variables of Ziarat watershed in Golestan province. In this research, daily data on minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours of synoptic station of Hashem Abad in Gorgan city and pluviometer station of Naharkhoran over the period of 1985-2013 was simulated using LARS-WG statistic model and after ensuring the effectiveness of this model in the simulation of meteorological parameters mentioned in Ziarat watershed, the data related to three scenarios including A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (middle scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of HadCM3 model over the time period of 2046-2065 was downscaled with LARS-WG model in order to examine the effects of climate change on basin runoff. The results indicated that according to the LARS-WG model estimation for scenarios studied, the average temperature of Ziarat basin will be increased up to 1.64 to 3.70 degrees Celsius over the upcoming periods. Also, the amount of rainfall will change at a rate of -1.510 to 9.66 mm in compared to the base period.

Keywords: climate change, downscaling, HadCM3, LARS-WG, Ziarat watershed
Full-Text [PDF 562 kb]   (198 Downloads)    
Type of Study: case report | Subject: Watershed management and rainwater harvesting
Received: 2015/09/13 | Accepted: 2016/07/18 | Published: 2016/07/18
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Razavi Zade M, Solaimani K, Sailakhori E. Forecasting climate changes of Ziarat watershed in Gorgan city. 3. 2015; 2 (1) :39-48
URL: http://jap.haraz.ac.ir/article-1-58-en.html
Volume 2, Number 1 (Winter 2015) Back to browse issues page
نشریه علمی - پژوهشی هیدرولوژی کاربردی Journal of Applied Hydrology
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